The Kansas City Royals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 3-1 at Surprise Stadium on March 1, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Both teams finished with eight hits apiece and committed no errors, but Kansas City converted its opportunities more efficiently, scoring in the first, fourth, and fifth innings while Milwaukee managed just a single run in the opening frame.
The decisive swing came in the bottom of the fourth, when Carter Jensen's home run off Grant Anderson added 11.4 percent to Kansas City's win probability, effectively turning a close game into one the Royals controlled the rest of the way. Jonathan India added to the cushion with a single off Craig Yoho in the fifth, a play worth 6.7 percent in win probability. Milwaukee mounted its most credible threat in the top of the ninth against Luinder Avila, when Daniel Dickinson's single opened the door with a 7.1 percent swing, but consecutive strikeouts by Luke Adams and Josiah Ragsdale, costing Milwaukee 8.4 and 6.9 percent in win probability respectively, ended the rally and the game.
On the pitching side, Luinder Avila was the most impactful arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with 14.4 percent WPA by closing out the ninth, followed by Mitch Spence at 13.6 percent and Michael Wacha at 11.0 percent. Among position players, Dickinson led Milwaukee batters at plus-7.1 percent WPA and plus-0.5 RE24, while Cooper Pratt contributed plus-6.1 percent WPA and Ramón Rodríguez added plus-5.7 percent WPA for Kansas City, rounding out a balanced offensive performance from the winning side.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.