The Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins played to a 2-2 tie on March 1, 2026, at Lee Health Sports Complex, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game giving the Twins a 54 percent chance of winning and closing at zero percent upon the final out. The game remained scoreless through four innings before Atlanta broke through in the fifth on a Brewer Hicklen home run off Connor Prielipp, a swing that shifted win probability 12.3 points in the Braves' favor. Minnesota answered in the sixth with two runs, highlighted by an Alex Jackson hit by pitch off Garrett Baumann that moved the needle 9.8 points toward the Twins and a James Outman sacrifice fly off Ian Mejia that swung win probability another 12.1 points, giving Minnesota a 2-1 lead heading to the late innings.
Atlanta reclaimed a share of the result in the eighth when John Gil delivered the game's most consequential swing, a home run off Eric Orze that registered a win-probability shift of 18.6 points and knotted the score at two. That blow made Gil the top performer of the afternoon by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing at plus-18.3 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. Hicklen ranked second at plus-11.5 percent WPA and plus-0.8 RE24, while Ethan Workinger contributed plus-10.0 percent WPA and plus-0.5 RE24. On the mound, Travis Adams was the most impactful arm, posting plus-13.5 percent WPA, aided in part by a Lizandro Espinoza strikeout in the top of the ninth that swung win probability 10.9 points toward Minnesota and preserved the deadlock. Austin Pope added plus-10.9 percent WPA and Grant Holmes contributed plus-9.5 percent WPA as the pitching staffs combined to hold the game level through nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.