The New York Mets walked off the Houston Astros 4-3 at Clover Park on March 1, 2026, completing a comeback that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Houston carried a 3-2 advantage into the bottom of the ninth before New York's offense manufactured the decisive two-run rally against the Houston bullpen.
The game's most consequential sequence unfolded in the bottom of the ninth, where Yonatan Henriquez delivered a walk-off single off Alex Santos II that swung win probability by 35.9 percent, the single largest play of the contest by WPA. Austin Barnes had set the stage moments earlier with a double off Amos Willingham that added 17.5 percent to the Mets' win probability, while Yonny Hernandez's flyout off Santos briefly pushed the momentum back toward Houston, costing New York 20.5 percent in win probability before Henriquez responded. The other pivotal swing had come two innings earlier, when Chris Suero launched a home run off Anthony Maldonado in the bottom of the seventh to add 17.3 percent to New York's chances and knot the game at three.
Among individual performers, Henriquez led all batters with a final WPA of plus-34.0 and an RE24 of plus-0.8, while Suero posted a plus-17.8 WPA and the game's best RE24 at plus-1.3. Barnes contributed plus-15.9 WPA on the strength of his ninth-inning double. On the mound, Matt Turner paced Mets pitchers with a plus-13.5 WPA, followed by Bryce Conley at plus-11.5 and Anderson Severino at plus-10.6, a collective effort that held Houston to three runs on five hits with no errors allowed.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.