The Chicago White Sox handed the Cleveland Guardians a 7-5 defeat on February 28, 2026, at Goodyear Ballpark, overcoming a 54 percent pre-game home win probability that the DiamondIQ model had assigned to Cleveland heading into the contest. Chicago scored in five of nine innings, building a 3-0 lead in the first and adding runs in the fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth to keep Cleveland at bay. The Guardians committed two errors on their home side and managed eight hits but could not sustain enough offensive production to offset the damage.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the bottom of the ninth, when Alex Mooney struck out against Shane Murphy, a play that carried a plus-14.4 percent win-probability swing and effectively sealed the White Sox victory. Mooney had also delivered a single in the seventh off Tyler Davis worth plus-8.5 percent, making him the evening's most impactful offensive performer with a combined plus-22.9 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24. Cleveland's brightest offensive moment came in the third, when George Valera doubled off Shane Smith for a plus-10.1 percent swing, and Kody Huff added a single in the eighth off Adisyn Coffey worth plus-9.0 percent to keep Cleveland within reach before the final out extinguished the rally.
On the pitching side, Shane Smith was Chicago's most valuable arm by win probability, posting a plus-16.5 percent WPA contribution that anchored the staff's collective effort. Wikelman González added plus-5.9 percent and Jedixson Paez contributed plus-4.2 percent in support. Offensively, William Bergolla Jr. finished second among White Sox batters with a plus-14.0 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, while Huff rounded out the top three at plus-11.4 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24. The DiamondIQ model, which had opened the night slightly favoring Cleveland, closed at zero percent for the Guardians as Chicago converted its advantage into a two-run final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.