The Boston Red Sox defeated the Minnesota Twins 13-8 at JetBlue Park on February 28, 2026, in a game that the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifted from a relatively even 54 percent home win probability before first pitch to a locked-in 100 percent by the final out. Minnesota kept the game competitive into the middle innings, scoring four runs in the top of the second and adding a pair more in the seventh when Ricardo Olivar's single off T.J. Sikkema carried an 18.3 percent swing in win probability, briefly threatening to close the gap. Boston, however, responded with authority in the bottom half of nearly every inning, building a lead that the Twins could not ultimately overcome.
The decisive blows came from Max Ferguson and Jarren Duran, who combined to reshape the game's probability landscape. Duran's home run off Kendry Rojas in the bottom of the fourth added 13.1 percent to Boston's win probability, while Ferguson's home run off Anthony Banda in the bottom of the seventh was the single most impactful plate appearance of the game, delivering a 23.5 percent swing that effectively put the contest away. Ferguson finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-23.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.4, matching Duran's plus-3.4 RE24 on the day. Earlier in the third, Carlos Narváez and Willson Contreras each contributed clutch singles off Mike Paredes and Taj Bradley, adding 11.6 and 9.3 percent respectively to Boston's probability advantage. On the mound, Connelly Early led Boston's pitching staff with a plus-5.3 percent WPA contribution, followed by Garrett Whitlock at plus-4.8 percent and Noah Song at plus-4.1 percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.