The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 9-7 at American Family Fields of Phoenix on February 28, 2026, in a game that shifted decisively in Cincinnati's favor through a pair of big offensive innings. The Brewers actually held a four-run edge after the first inning, with Milwaukee plating four runs in the bottom of the first against a scoreless Cincinnati frame. That advantage eroded sharply in the top of the fourth, when the Reds erupted for four runs of their own. Blake Dunn's double off Jared Koenig moved the needle by 17.0 percentage points, and Dane Myers followed with a single off Jesús Broca worth an additional 13.1 points of win probability, as the Reds erased the deficit entirely. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Milwaukee a 54% pre-game win probability, but Cincinnati's methodical accumulation of damage gradually inverted that edge.
The decisive blow came in the top of the sixth, when Dane Myers laced a double off Sammy Peralta that swung win probability 21.3 percentage points toward Cincinnati, part of a three-run Reds frame that pushed the lead to a margin Milwaukee could not fully recover. Milwaukee's best chance at a counter-swing arrived in the bottom of the eighth, but Luis Peña grounded into a double play that collapsed the Brewers' rally and cost Milwaukee 23.3 percentage points of win probability, the single largest swing of the contest. That play effectively sealed the outcome, as the DiamondIQ model placed Milwaukee's win probability at 0% by game's end.
Myers finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, contributing a combined +32.2% WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4 across his two key hits. Blake Dunn added +21.4% WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.0, while Luis Lara contributed +16.3% WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 in support. On the pitching side, Coleman Crow led the staff with +6.8% WPA, followed closely by Hagen Danner at +6.3% and Caleb Ferguson at +6.1%. Cincinnati finished with 10 hits and committed no errors, while Milwaukee collected 17 hits but could not convert enough of them into runs to overcome the Reds' timely power in the middle innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.