The Washington Nationals defeated the New York Mets 3-2 at Clover Park on February 28, 2026, scoring in three separate innings to hand the Mets a loss despite New York entering with a 54 percent pre-game win probability by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Washington plated single runs in the third, fourth, and sixth innings, while the Mets answered with runs in the seventh and eighth but could not complete the comeback, leaving the final win probability at zero percent for the home side.
The most consequential sequence of the game unfolded in the bottom of the eighth inning, where Nick Morabito's double off Richard Lovelady represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night, adding 29.1 percent in the Mets' favor and briefly tightening the contest. However, Jared Young's groundout off Lovelady immediately deflated that momentum, costing New York 25.8 percent in win probability, and Jose Ramos followed with a strikeout that shed another 15.5 percent. The Mets threatened again in the ninth against PJ Poulin, with Ben Rortvedt drawing a walk that added 12.3 percent, but Jacob Reimer's flyout produced the opposite effect, swinging 15.5 percent back toward Washington and effectively closing the door.
Morabito finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 26.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.2, while Ji Hwan Bae contributed plus 17.0 percent WPA and Antonio Jimenez added plus 10.8 percent for New York. On the pitching side, starter Jake Irvin led Washington's staff with plus 12.3 percent WPA, supported by Jackson Rutledge at plus 6.6 percent and Cole Henry at plus 6.0 percent, a collective effort that proved sufficient to preserve the one-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.