The Texas Rangers defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 7-6 on February 28, 2026, at Surprise Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. The Dodgers jumped out to a 2-0 lead after the first inning, but Texas chipped away before taking control with a decisive three-run sixth inning that proved to be the margin of victory. Los Angeles finished with 11 hits but committed one error, while the Rangers went clean defensively across 10 hits.
The game's most consequential sequence arrived in the bottom of the sixth, where Andrew Velazquez delivered a double off Carlos Duran that added 20.0 percent to Texas's win probability, the single biggest swing of the afternoon. That same inning, Alejandro Osuna followed with a single off Duran that pushed the needle another 13.6 percent in the Rangers' favor, turning the sixth into a decisive three-run frame. Earlier, Nick Senzel had hit a home run in the top of the fifth off Michel Otañez that represented a 19.2 percent swing for Los Angeles, briefly giving the Dodgers momentum, but Sam Haggerty had countered in the bottom of the fourth with a home run off Cole Irvin worth 11.3 percent, and Nick Pratto added a key single off Will Klein in the fifth at plus 11.2 percent to keep Texas in front.
Among individual performers, Nick Senzel led all batters with a WPA of plus 22.9 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.5, making him the most impactful offensive player in the game despite being on the losing side. Velazquez finished second among position players at plus 19.5 percent WPA, and Pratto contributed plus 16.9 percent WPA with a plus 1.3 RE24. On the mound, Carter Baumler and Jackson Ferris each posted plus 9.0 percent WPA for Texas, with Wyatt Crowell adding plus 7.8 percent as the Rangers' pitching staff collectively held the Dodgers at bay when it mattered most. The DiamondIQ model leans toward the Rangers' bullpen performance and Velazquez's sixth-inning double as the defining factors in the outcome.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.