The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Los Angeles Angels 8-5 at Tempe Diablo Stadium on February 28, 2026, with a decisive eighth-inning surge that erased what had been a competitive game. Arizona scored five runs in the top of the eighth to break things open, capping a contest in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate of an Angels win went from a pre-game 54 percent home-team probability all the way to zero percent by the final out. Los Angeles had held a narrow foothold through the middle innings, but the Diamondbacks finished with 13 hits to the Angels' eight and pulled away convincingly.
The single most consequential moment of the game was Yassel Soler's home run off Jayvien Sandridge in the top of the eighth, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-50.7 percent in Arizona's favor and effectively ended the Angels' chances. Earlier, Luken Baker had delivered a solo shot off Drew Pomeranz in the top of the fourth that moved the needle plus-17.1 percent, giving Arizona an early foothold. Jorge Barrosa added to the Diamondbacks' offensive production with a triple off Kirby Yates in the fifth, worth plus-12.7 percent in win probability. On the Angels' side, Matthew Lugo's double off Paul Sewald in the bottom of the fourth provided a plus-11.2 percent bump, while Travis d'Arnaud's ground into a double play in the fifth against Casey Anderson cost Los Angeles minus-13.8 percent, a momentum-killing sequence at a pivotal moment.
Soler led all batters with a plus-50.7 percent WPA and a plus-2.7 RE24, while Baker finished at plus-15.4 percent WPA with a plus-1.9 RE24 and Raudi Rodriguez contributed plus-16.8 percent WPA. Casey Anderson was the most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a plus-18.5 percent WPA on the mound, with Tayler Saucedo adding plus-8.5 percent and Alek Manoah contributing plus-8.0 percent in support.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.