The Chicago Cubs handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 6-2 defeat at Camelback Ranch on February 28, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Dodgers win from 54 percent before the first pitch down to zero by the final out. The Cubs held Los Angeles scoreless through eight innings before the Dodgers scratched across two runs in the ninth, by which point the outcome was already decided. Chicago finished with 10 hits against four for the Dodgers, compounding their advantage with a Los Angeles error while committing two of their own.
The game turned decisively in the fifth inning, where Dylan Carlson drew a walk off Wyatt Mills that shifted win probability 13.6 percent in Chicago's favor, representing the single largest swing of the game. That same inning, Kevin Alcántara's strikeout against Mills moved the needle 9.2 percent back toward Los Angeles, underscoring how contested that frame was. Pedro Ramírez contributed a single off Ronan Kopp in the seventh worth 12.4 percent, and Brett Bateman added a single off Patrick Copen in the eighth for another 9.1 percent swing, both plays helping Chicago steadily push the Dodgers out of contention. On the negative side for Chicago, Matt Shaw grounded into a double play off Edwin Díaz in the third, costing the Cubs 12.2 percent in win probability at a moment when the game remained tight.
Among individual performers, Scott Kingery led all batters with a WPA of plus-14.1 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Brett Bateman matched the RE24 figure with a WPA of plus-12.3 percent. Pedro Ramírez also posted plus-12.3 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-0.6. On the mound, Javier Assad was the most impactful arm of the afternoon at plus-17.9 percent WPA, with Ben Brown adding plus-12.5 percent and Colin Rea contributing plus-12.0 percent, a trio of performances that kept Los Angeles largely quiet until the game was out of reach.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.