The Atlanta Braves defeated the Baltimore Orioles 7-5 at Ed Smith Stadium on February 28, 2026, handing Baltimore a loss despite the Orioles entering as slight favorites with a 54 percent pre-game home win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Atlanta built its margin gradually, scoring twice in the second inning and adding single runs in the sixth and eighth before a three-run eighth ultimately broke the game open. Baltimore answered with a three-run ninth but could not complete the comeback, leaving the Orioles with a final line of five runs on five hits and one error against Atlanta's clean seven runs on twelve hits.
The pivotal sequence came in the top of the eighth inning, where consecutive home runs by John Gil and Cal Conley off Chayce McDermott swung the win probability in Atlanta's favor by 12.2 and 11.4 percentage points respectively, effectively turning a tight contest into a cushioned lead. Adley Rutschman had given Baltimore its best offensive moment earlier, crushing a home run off Martín Pérez in the bottom of the fourth for a 12.3 percent win-probability swing, and his overall WPA of plus 15.4 made him the most impactful Orioles hitter on the night. The Braves' most valuable contributor by that measure was Chadwick Tromp, who finished with a WPA of plus 16.9 and a RE24 of plus 2.3, the best marks of any position player in the game.
On the mound, Atlanta's relievers were the difference. José Suarez led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 14.2, with Javy Guerra and Rico Garcia adding plus 9.7 and plus 6.6 respectively as the Braves bullpen stabilized the game through the middle innings. Baltimore's José Barrero provided one late moment of intrigue in the bottom of the ninth, a lineout that nonetheless registered plus 14.4 percent in win-probability movement off Ryan Bourassa, reflecting how tightly the game had closed before Atlanta sealed it. The DiamondIQ model's estimate finished the game at zero percent for the Orioles, a full reversal from where things stood at first pitch.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.