The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Chicago White Sox 5-2 at American Family Fields of Phoenix on February 27, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out.
The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the third inning, where Milwaukee did the bulk of its damage against Sean Burke. Jackson Chourio opened the sequence with a single that shifted win probability by plus 13.4 percent, and Luis Rengifo followed with a home run that added another 10.6 percent to Milwaukee's side of the ledger. The inning was not without its swings, however, as Brice Turang grounded into a double play that erased 13.3 percent of the Brewers' momentum. Rengifo continued to be a thorn in Chicago's side in the fourth, where his single off Tanner McDougal generated an additional plus 10.0 percent swing. On the other side, Lenyn Sosa's fielders choice out in the top of the fifth off Shane Drohan represented the most damaging single play for the White Sox, costing the visitors 10.9 percent in win probability and effectively closing the door on a rally.
Luis Rengifo led all position players with a WPA of plus 14.5 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Jackson Chourio and Chase Meidroth added plus 11.4 and plus 10.3 percent respectively, with Meidroth posting the game's best RE24 among batters at plus 1.3. On the pitching side, Easton McGee headlined the staff at plus 13.6 percent WPA, supported by Shane Drohan at plus 12.1 percent and Will Childers at plus 9.2 percent. Milwaukee finished with ten hits against Chicago's six, and both teams committed no errors in a clean defensive game.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.