The Colorado Rockies walked off the San Diego Padres 3-2 on February 27, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Colorado win climbing from 54 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by the game's final out. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the ninth, when Zac Veen connected on a home run off Sean Boyle that swung win probability by 41.4 percentage points and handed the Rockies the victory. It was the single largest win-probability swing of the night and effectively ended the contest on contact.
The Padres had briefly threatened to steal the game in the top of the eighth, generating their most sustained offensive pressure of the afternoon against Griffin Herring. Samad Taylor's single added 17.3 percentage points of win probability for San Diego, and a subsequent walk drawn by Tirso Ornelas pushed that figure another 15.3 points in the visitors' favor. However, Mason McCoy grounded into a fielder's choice out that erased 14.5 points of that momentum and stalled the rally before it could fully materialize. Colorado had also done incremental damage in the sixth, when Adael Amador singled off Triston McKenzie to generate a 13.2-point swing that factored into what became the eventual winning run.
Among individual performers, Veen led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus-39.1 percent alongside an RE24 of plus-0.8, while Adael Amador contributed plus-18.6 percent WPA and a game-best RE24 of plus-1.4. Taylor added plus-17.3 percent WPA for San Diego in a losing effort. On the mound, Eiberson Castellano paced Colorado's pitching staff with plus-15.6 percent WPA, followed by Parker Mushinski at plus-13.5 and John Brebbia at plus-11.4. The Rockies finished with six hits and one error against San Diego's four hits and two errors, with Colorado's bullpen ultimately protecting a lead that Veen's walk-off made insurmountable.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.