The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the Baltimore Orioles a 6-1 defeat at LECOM Park on February 27, 2026, a game that remained scoreless through five innings before Pittsburgh pulled away decisively. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest with a 54 percent home win probability for Pittsburgh, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent.
The two teams traded single runs in the sixth inning, but the Pirates broke the game open in the bottom of the seventh with a five-run frame that effectively ended the contest. The biggest swing of the night came on a Jhostynxon Garcia single off Levi Wells that shifted win probability by 15.7 percent, followed shortly by a Yordany De Los Santos double off the same pitcher that added another 10.5 percent. Bryan Ramos had delivered the first meaningful blow in the top of the sixth, but it was for Baltimore, as his single off Justin Lawrence added 11.9 percent win probability for the Orioles in what proved to be only a momentary threat. Davis Wendzel also contributed a single in the Pirates sixth off Tyson Neighbors, a swing worth 9.3 percent. On the Baltimore side, Thairo Estrada's strikeout against Dennis Santana in the fourth represented the game's single costliest individual moment for the Orioles, costing them 6.1 percent win probability.
Garcia finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer, posting a combined WPA of plus-21.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.1, while De Los Santos added plus-10.8 percent WPA and Ramos contributed plus-10.1 percent. On the mound, Brandon Young led Pittsburgh's pitching staff with a plus-12.0 percent WPA contribution, followed by Shane Baz at plus-9.2 percent and Isaac Mattson at plus-8.3 percent. Baltimore's pitchers absorbed the bulk of the damage as Pittsburgh's bats came alive at the right moment, turning a tightly contested game into a comfortable final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.