The Chicago Cubs defeated the Cleveland Guardians 8-6 on February 27, 2026, at Sloan Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs win climbing from 54 percent before first pitch all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Chicago's nine hits and clean defensive effort, compared to Cleveland's eight hits and one error, reflected a Cubs club that ultimately controlled the game's most pivotal moments despite a quiet middle stretch through the first six innings.
The decisive sequence arrived in the seventh and eighth innings. Cleveland threatened first in the top of the seventh, when Jonah Advincula laced a double off Porter Hodge that swung win probability by 34.3 percentage points in the Guardians' favor, and Maick Collado followed with a single off the same pitcher for an additional 14.8-point swing, as Cleveland pushed five runs across in that frame to take a lead. Chicago answered in the bottom of the seventh when Scott Kingery hit a home run off Parker Messick, a swing worth 15.8 percentage points. The Cubs then put the game away in the eighth, with Leonel Espinoza delivering a single off Jay Driver that shifted win probability 30.8 points toward Chicago, and Jefferson Rojas following with a double off Driver worth another 21.4 points, as the Cubs plated four runs in the inning to claim the lead for good.
Advincula finished as Cleveland's top contributor by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a WPA of plus-33.8 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.8, while Espinoza led Chicago's offense at plus-30.8 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24, and Rojas added plus-18.3 percent WPA alongside a RE24 of plus-1.9. On the mound, Edward Cabrera led Cubs pitchers with a WPA of plus-7.6 percent, supported by Ethan Roberts at plus-7.4 percent and Jacob Webb at plus-6.4 percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.