The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Chicago White Sox 7-6 at Camelback Ranch on February 26, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate registered as a full probability swing from 54 percent in favor of the home side before first pitch to 100 percent certainty by the final out. The Dodgers built an early cushion with single runs in the first and second innings and another in the fifth, but Chicago mounted its most significant challenge in the top of the third, where Tanner Murray connected on a home run off Carson Hobbs that added 16.2 percent to the White Sox win probability and briefly shifted the complexion of the game. Los Angeles answered decisively in the bottom of the sixth, when Keston Hiura's home run off Tyson Miller added 14.8 percent to the Dodgers' probability and was followed by a three-run frame that effectively restored control to the home side. Curtis Mead countered with a home run off Ben Casparius in the top half of the same inning, adding 14.6 percent for Chicago, keeping the White Sox within reach entering the later innings.
The decisive sequence unfolded in the eighth and ninth innings. George Wolkow's triple off Kyle Hurt in the top of the eighth was the single most impactful offensive play for Chicago, adding 22.2 percent to their win probability and trimming the deficit to a manageable margin. However, the rally ultimately came up short when Jacob Gonzalez grounded into a double play in the top of the ninth off Jordan Weems, a swing of negative 22.8 percent that sealed the outcome. Weems was the game's most valuable pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a WPA of plus 15.2 percent, while Jack Dreyer and Alex Vesia contributed plus 7.2 and plus 5.5 percent respectively in support. Offensively, Josue De Paula led all batters with a WPA of plus 22.4 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.1, while Wolkow's plus 1.4 RE24 and Will Smith's plus 19.2 percent WPA further anchored the Dodgers' production in a game that ultimately turned on Los Angeles's ability to protect its advantage when Chicago made its late push.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.