The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Kansas City Royals 13-10 on February 26, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, rallying from an early deficit to pull away decisively in the middle innings. Kansas City had drawn first blood with a two-run fourth inning and held a 6-4 lead after a high-scoring fifth, but Arizona's bullpen and offense combined to swing the contest irrevocably in the home team's favor. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at 54 percent in favor of Arizona and climbed to 100 percent by game's end, with the critical probability shifts concentrated in the seventh and eighth innings.
The decisive turning point came in the bottom of the seventh when Jose Fernandez launched a home run off Brandon Johnson, a swing that added 45.6 percent win probability and effectively erased Kansas City's cushion. That blow was supported by Jacob Amaya's single off Ben Kudrna, which added another 12.4 percent, as Arizona put up five runs in the frame. The Diamondbacks then piled on in the eighth against Shane Panzini, with Luken Baker's home run adding 35.8 percent win probability, followed by a Tommy Troy double at plus 13.0 percent and a Druw Jones double at plus 13.4 percent, turning a competitive game into a comfortable Arizona victory.
Fernandez finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer by WPA at plus 42.6 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.3, while Baker topped the group in run environment value with a RE24 of plus 2.7 to go alongside his plus 39.7 percent WPA. Tommy Troy contributed plus 17.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.6, providing crucial run-support depth in the eighth. On the mound, Ryan Bergert led Arizona's pitching staff with plus 6.7 percent WPA, followed by Alex Lange at plus 5.9 percent and Ryan Thompson at plus 5.3 percent, as the trio helped hold Kansas City in check after the Royals had collected 16 hits on the afternoon.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.