The Cincinnati Reds edged the San Diego Padres 11-10 on February 26, 2026, at Goodyear Ballpark in a back-and-forth spring contest that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win begin at 54 percent and close at 100 percent. The game turned on a series of explosive half-innings, with both clubs trading multi-run frames before Cincinnati ultimately held on for the one-run decision.
The central figure in a losing effort was Manny Machado, who finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer despite playing for the losing side. His third-inning home run off Nick Sando added 17.4 percentage points of win probability to San Diego's outlook, and his sixth-inning blast off Graham Ashcraft swung the needle another 28.7 points, representing the single largest win-probability play of the game. Those two swings accounted for a combined +41.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of +4.2, making Machado the clear individual standout by DiamondIQ's metrics. The Padres also got a critical single from Marcos Castanon in the eighth inning off Zach Maxwell, a hit that added 14.4 points of win probability and helped San Diego cut into a deficit, though it was not enough.
Cincinnati's decisive burst came in the bottom of the fifth, when Elly De La Cruz doubled off Miguel Mendez for an 18.0-point swing, and Noelvi Marte followed with a double off Justin Yeager worth another 15.6 points — a two-play sequence that fueled a six-run inning and effectively built the margin the Reds needed to survive. De La Cruz finished with a WPA of +17.0 and a RE24 of +1.6, while Tyler Callihan contributed +24.5 WPA. On the mound, Cincinnati's bullpen closed it out efficiently, with Will Cannon leading Reds pitchers at +15.2 WPA, followed by Chase Petty at +12.0 and Connor Phillips at +8.5.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.