The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Washington Nationals 7-3 on February 26, 2026, at BayCare Ballpark, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Philadelphia's win probability moving from 54 percent before the game to a decisive 100 percent by the final out. The Phillies and Nationals traded single runs in the first inning, but the contest's defining moment arrived in the bottom of the third, when Philadelphia sent multiple batters to the plate against Gus Varland and Seth Shuman and constructed a four-run frame that effectively decided the outcome. Dante Nori opened the damage with a double off Varland, Bryce Harper followed with a double of his own that added 8.8 percentage points to Philadelphia's win probability, and Kehden Hettiger then delivered a home run that swung the model's estimate by 13.6 percentage points, the single largest win-probability shift of the game. Garrett Stubbs capped the inning with a single off Seth Shuman to complete the four-run outburst.
Washington pushed back in the top of the fourth with a two-run home run by Andrés Chaparro off Tanner Banks, a blow that moved the win-probability needle 13.3 percentage points in the Nationals' favor and briefly tightened the deficit to 5-3. Philadelphia, however, answered with single runs in the fifth and sixth innings to restore separation and ultimately close out the 7-3 final. The Nationals could not generate further threats over the final three innings, finishing with six hits and no errors while Philadelphia posted seven hits of its own.
Hettiger led all position players with a WPA of plus-15.8 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Chaparro's damage-limiting home run still earned him a plus-12.2 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24 on the losing side. Harper's plus-9.5 percent WPA was the third-best among batters. On the mound, Jonathan Bowlan paced Philadelphia's pitching staff with a plus-5.9 percent WPA, followed by José Alvarado at plus-5.3 percent and Chase Shugart at plus-5.0 percent, a collective effort that held Washington scoreless across the game's final six innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.