The Miami Marlins rallied past the Toronto Blue Jays 8-7 at TD Ballpark on February 26, 2026, overcoming a deficit built largely in the early innings to secure the road victory. Toronto had staked itself to a 7-2 lead through seven frames, scoring two in the first, three in the second, and two more in the fourth, while Miami managed just one run in the third and one in the fourth. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Toronto's win probability at 54% before first pitch, and the Blue Jays appeared to be validating that projection heading into the eighth.
The Marlins began their comeback in the top of the eighth, when Chase Jaworsky laced a triple off Geison Urbaez that swung win probability 18.9 points in Miami's favor, part of a four-run frame that pulled the club within one. The decisive sequence came in the top of the ninth against Michael Plassmeyer. Bennett Hostetler's single registered a 27.8-point win-probability swing, the second-largest play of the game, and Dylan Jasso followed with a single of his own worth 18.7 points, before Chris Arroyo's forceout added another 13.5 points. Miami plated two runs in the inning to take an 8-7 lead heading to the bottom of the ninth, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate for a Toronto win standing near its highest point all game.
Josh Rivera then delivered the most impactful single play of the contest, grounding into an out off William Kempner in the bottom of the ninth that — given the game state and base-out configuration — added 31.6 points to Miami's win probability and sealed the win, finishing as the top individual WPA play of the game at plus 31.7 overall. Rivera, Hostetler, and Jasso led all batters by that measure. On the pitching side, Tyler Rogers paced Marlins relievers with a plus-7.4% WPA contribution, with Lazaro Estrada and Brendon Little also posting positive figures. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 0% for Toronto, a complete reversal from where things stood through seven innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.