Seattle defeated Cleveland 8-7 at Peoria Stadium on February 26, 2026, in a game that the DiamondIQ model entered with a 54 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent in the Mariners' favor. Seattle built its lead methodically, scoring two runs in each of the first two innings before Cleveland responded with a two-run home run from Juan Brito in the fourth off Cooper Criswell, a swing that shifted win probability 12.8 points toward the Guardians. The Mariners answered with two more runs in the sixth, and when Petey Halpin launched a three-run home run off Ryan Loutos in the seventh, Cleveland pulled within striking distance with a 10.9-point win-probability swing that made the final inning genuinely consequential.
Seattle's decisive blow came in the bottom of the eighth, when Brock Rodden connected for a home run off Tommy Mace, a 13.6-point swing that pushed the Mariners' cushion to 8-6 entering the final frame. Cleveland mounted a threat in the top of the ninth against Domingo Gonzalez, but Kahlil Watson grounded into a double play that extinguished the rally and represented the single largest win-probability movement of the game at negative 36.9 points for the Guardians. A fielding error on Gonzalez momentarily extended Cleveland's hopes with a 23.1-point swing, but the Guardians managed only one run in the inning before Gonzalez closed it out.
Among Seattle's top performers, Ralphy Velazquez finished with the game's highest WPA at plus 18.9 percent to go with a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Halpin contributed plus 17.4 percent WPA and led all players with a RE24 of plus 2.3. Rodden added plus 13.6 percent WPA on the strength of his decisive eighth-inning home run. On the mound, Abdiel Mendoza led Seattle's pitching staff with plus 7.5 percent WPA, followed by Gonzalez at plus 6.3 percent and Cole Wilcox at plus 5.0 percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.