The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Chicago Cubs 5-4 on February 26, 2026, at Tempe Diablo Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of home win probability moving from 54% before the game to a certainty of 100% by its conclusion. The Angels built their winning margin through a four-run fifth inning that proved decisive, erasing what had been a 2-1 Cubs advantage through the first two innings and turning a competitive contest into a comfortable Angels victory.
The bottom of the fifth inning was where the game was effectively decided, as three consecutive hits off Cubs pitching shifted the win-probability landscape by a combined 41.7 percentage points in Los Angeles's favor. Kyren Paris delivered a single off Jaxon Wiggins that added 16.7% to the Angels' win probability, followed immediately by a Gustavo Campero triple off Wiggins that added another 15.2%. After Connor Noland entered in relief, Chris Taylor doubled to contribute an additional 9.8% swing, capping the four-run frame that put the Angels ahead for good. The Angels had also scored a run in the fourth inning to keep pace before the fifth-inning surge.
On the individual side, Paris finished as the game's top offensive performer with a WPA of plus-19.9% and an RE24 of plus-1.6, while Campero added plus-11.7% WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 and Taylor contributed plus-8.9% WPA. On the mound, Mitch Farris led all pitchers with plus-25.9% WPA, closing out the Cubs in the ninth inning and inducing a strikeout from Christian Olivo that shifted win probability 7.1 points in the Angels' direction. Matthew Boyd also posted a strong plus-21.1% WPA in his outing, aided in part by a critical Travis d'Arnaud strikeout in the second inning that negated an Angels threat and swung win probability 8.8 points in Chicago's favor at the time.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.