The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Houston Astros 9-4 on February 26, 2026, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, turning what began as a scoreless pitchers' duel into a decisive home victory. The DiamondIQ model opened with Houston holding a slight 54% road win probability, but that figure swung sharply as the middle innings unfolded in St. Louis's favor, ultimately closing at 100% for the Cardinals.
The pivotal moment of the contest came in the bottom of the fifth, when Alec Burleson connected on a home run off Miguel Ullola that added 29.0% in win probability, the single most impactful play of the game. That swing came in direct response to a Houston threat in the top half of the inning, where Riley Unroe's run-scoring single off Nick Raquet had shifted the momentum by 11.5% toward the Astros. Burleson's answer erased that gain and then some. The Cardinals had already chipped away in the bottom of the fourth, when Yohel Pozo launched a home run off Colton Gordon worth 12.3% in win probability. The Cardinals then added four more runs in the bottom of the seventh, highlighted by a Jimmy Crooks home run off Amos Willingham that contributed an additional 11.3%.
Burleson finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 30.8% with a RE24 of plus 2.2, while Unroe led Houston's offensive contributors at plus 15.4% WPA and plus 1.5 RE24 despite being on the losing side. Walker Janek added plus 14.8% WPA and plus 1.1 RE24 for St. Louis. On the mound, Peter Lambert paced all pitchers at plus 6.7% WPA, followed by JoJo Romero at plus 5.1%. St. Louis finished with 11 hits against no Astros errors, while Houston managed just 5 hits and committed no errors of their own in the losing effort.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.