The Colorado Rockies handed the Chicago Cubs a 14-7 defeat at Sloan Park on February 25, 2026, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability of 54 percent for Chicago collapse all the way to zero by the final out. Colorado built an early cushion with runs in the first and second innings before a wild fifth inning saw both teams combine for 12 runs, temporarily keeping the Cubs within range. Any hopes of a Chicago comeback were extinguished in the eighth, when the Rockies plated five more to put the game firmly out of reach, finishing with 16 hits against just one error compared to Chicago's 10 hits and two errors.
The decisive swing in momentum came in the bottom of the seventh, when Angel Cepeda grounded into a double play off RJ Petit, a play that carried a win-probability swing of negative 14.0 percent for Chicago, effectively closing the door on any Cubs rally. Earlier, Devin Ortiz had given the Cubs a flicker of life with a single off Konner Eaton in the sixth that added 10.5 percent to Chicago's win probability, and Owen Miller's double off Connor Staine in the fifth had contributed a positive 8.6 percent swing as well. On the Colorado side, Vimael Machín's double off Luke Little in the eighth added 9.2 percent to the Rockies' win probability and keyed the decisive five-run frame.
Among individual performers, Antonio Senzatela led all pitchers with a commanding plus-21.7 percent WPA, while RJ Petit added 8.8 percent and Jose Quintana contributed 6.9 percent to Colorado's collective pitching effort. Offensively, Devin Ortiz paced Chicago with a plus-10.5 percent WPA and 0.8 RE24, but it was Mickey Moniak who led all batters in overall impact with a plus-9.7 percent WPA and a game-high 1.3 RE24 in support of the Rockies' winning cause. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Senzatela's early dominance, particularly his strikeout of Matt Shaw in the second that swung win probability by negative 9.7 percent against Chicago, as the foundational edge that Colorado never surrendered.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.