The Cincinnati Reds held off the Chicago White Sox 3-2 at Camelback Ranch on February 25, 2026, in a game that began with the DiamondIQ model's estimate giving the home side a 54% chance of winning but ended with that figure at 0% as Cincinnati's pitching staff kept Chicago from completing a late comeback.
The Reds built their lead early, with JJ Bleday delivering the game's most consequential offensive moment when he connected on a home run off Jordan Hicks in the top of the third inning, a swing that shifted Cincinnati's win probability by plus 17.4 percentage points and pushed the Reds to a 3-0 advantage after three frames. Chicago managed to chip away with single runs in the fourth and ninth innings, but the Reds' margin held. The ninth inning was the game's most volatile stretch, with White Sox catcher Josh Breaux drawing a strikeout off Julian Garcia that proved to be the biggest single play of the evening by win-probability impact at plus 21.4 points for Cincinnati, stranding the tying run and effectively sealing the game. Dustin Harris had pushed the White Sox within one with a double earlier in the frame, a plus 14.7-point swing, and Sam Antonacci followed with a double of his own for another plus 10.9-point move, but Jarred Kelenic's strikeout at minus 13.1 points and Breaux's final out closed the door on Chicago's rally.
Among individual performers, Breaux led all batters with a plus 15.9 WPA mark despite his final out, reflecting his earlier contributions, while Bleday posted plus 15.3 WPA and a plus 1.4 RE24, underlining how consequential his home run was in the context of run-expectancy. On the mound, Darren McCaughan led Cincinnati's pitchers with plus 13.3 WPA, followed closely by Jonathan Cannon at plus 12.9 and Nick Lodolo at plus 9.5, a collective effort that limited Chicago to just two runs on eight hits while committing zero errors against the Reds' one.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.