The Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals played to an 8-8 tie on February 25, 2026, at Surprise Stadium, a back-and-forth spring training contest that saw three lead changes in the final three innings. Seattle finished with 13 hits and three errors against Kansas City's 10 hits and a clean defensive ledger. The DiamondIQ model opened with Kansas City as a modest favorite at 54 percent home win probability, but that figure ultimately settled at zero with neither side claiming a victory.
The game's decisive moments were driven almost entirely by the long ball. Seattle's Jakson Reetz delivered a top-sixth home run off Jose Cuas that swung win probability 35.1 points in the Mariners' favor, part of a four-run frame that gave Seattle what looked like a commanding advantage. Kansas City answered immediately in the bottom of the seventh when Gavin Cross connected off Charlie Beilenson for a home run that produced the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-35.8 points, erasing the Seattle lead. The Royals' rally in that inning totaled four runs, mirroring Seattle's sixth-inning surge. Connor Joe then delivered a go-ahead two-run home run in the top of the ninth off Ben Sears worth plus-35.5 points, only for Kansas City to answer with a run of its own in the bottom half to force the final tie. Kameron Misner's triple in the fifth off Dane Dunning added plus-17.2 points for the Royals, and Felnin Celesten's single in the eighth off Helcris Olivárez contributed plus-16.4 points for Seattle.
By the DiamondIQ model's individual metrics, Connor Joe led Seattle with plus-35.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Jakson Reetz posted plus-35.2 percent WPA and the highest RE24 among batters at plus-2.7. Gavin Cross paced Kansas City at plus-30.3 percent WPA and plus-2.1 RE24. On the pitching side, Mason Black led all hurlers at plus-6.3 percent WPA, followed by Eduard Bazardo at plus-5.7 percent and Noah Cameron at plus-5.4 percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.