The Milwaukee Brewers survived a furious San Francisco Giants rally to win 13-12 at American Family Fields of Phoenix on February 25, 2026, in a game that was anything but settled until the final out. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent home win probability for Milwaukee and closed at 100 percent, though the path there was far more turbulent than that final figure suggests. The fourth inning was the game's central turning point, as the two clubs combined for 12 runs. Brice Turang's home run off Tristan Beck in the bottom half carried a win-probability swing of plus 23.8 percent for Milwaukee and gave the Brewers a lead they would carry through much of the contest.
The ninth inning delivered the game's most dramatic sequence in both directions. Victor Bericoto's single off Edwin Jimenez shifted win probability by plus 34.1 percent in San Francisco's favor, and a fielding error on Jerar Encarnacion's plate appearance added another plus 30.6 percent, pushing the Giants to the brink of a stunning comeback and pulling the DiamondIQ model's estimate sharply toward San Francisco. The Giants plated four runs in the top of the ninth to draw within one. Milwaukee answered immediately in the bottom half, however, as Greg Jones delivered a sacrifice fly off Nick Margevicius that proved to be the decisive blow, swinging win probability by plus 41.4 percent and ending the game.
Jones finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 43.1 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.3, while Encarnacion posted plus 32.9 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, and Bericoto added plus 30.1 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24 despite the Giants ultimately falling short. Bryce Eldridge's home run off Peter Strzelecki in the third had given San Francisco an early jolt at plus 20.0 percent WPA, and the Giants totaled 15 hits on the afternoon, but Milwaukee's bullpen trio of Manuel Rodriguez, Brian Fitzpatrick, and Brett Wichrowski combined to protect the slim lead when it mattered most, contributing plus 10.8, plus 8.5, and plus 7.1 percent WPA respectively.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.