The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 10-7 at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on February 25, 2026, erasing an early three-run deficit to pull away decisively. Arizona struck first, plating three runs in the bottom of the first inning, but Los Angeles chipped away with two in the second before the game turned sharply in the fifth. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had the Diamondbacks entering the day as slight favorites at 54% home win probability, a number that eroded steadily and finished at 0% by the final out.
The fifth and seventh innings were the decisive turns. In the top of the fifth, the Dodgers strung together a four-run frame built on pivotal at-bats against Arizona's bullpen, with Hyeseong Kim's single off Dylan Ray carrying the highest single-play win-probability swing of the game at plus 11.2%. Walks drawn by Alex Freeland and Jake Gelof off Carlos Rey added plus 10.3% and plus 10.0% respectively, reflecting how thoroughly Los Angeles worked the inning. Arizona responded briefly in the bottom half when Pavin Smith hit a home run off Will Klein worth plus 10.2% from the Diamondbacks' side, but the deficit proved too large to overcome. Los Angeles then added four more in the seventh, with Zyhir Hope's double off Alfred Morillo swinging win probability another plus 11.0% in the Dodgers' favor.
Noah Miller was the game's most impactful offensive performer, finishing at plus 16.6% WPA with a RE24 of plus 2.6, the highest marks among all batters. Alex Freeland added plus 11.5% WPA and Zyhir Hope contributed plus 10.9% WPA to round out the top three. On the mound, Chris Campos led Dodgers pitchers with plus 7.5% WPA, followed by Gerardo Carrillo at plus 5.3% and Edwin Díaz at plus 4.8%, as Los Angeles' pitching staff ultimately held Arizona's lineup — which collected 13 hits to the Dodgers' seven — from completing a comeback. The Dodgers' ability to convert runs despite being outhit was the defining analytical story of the afternoon.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.