The Houston Astros defeated the Miami Marlins 4-1 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on February 25, 2026, finishing with a line of seven hits, four runs, and four errors against Miami's five hits, one run, and one error. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Miami holding a 54% win probability at first pitch, a number that steadily eroded before closing at 0% in favor of Houston by game's end.
The decisive stretch began in the top of the fourth inning, when Walker Janek delivered a double off Tyler Zuber that swung win probability 17.4 points in Houston's favor, representing the single largest positive impact from a Houston bat all afternoon. Taylor Trammell added to that margin in the fifth with a home run off Justin King, a swing worth 11.8 percentage points. Miami's best opportunity came in the third, when Maximo Acosta singled off Roddery Muñoz to generate a 12.4-point swing for the Marlins, keeping the game within reach early. However, the seventh inning effectively closed the door on any Miami comeback. Nathan Martorella grounded into a double play off Alimber Santa that cost the Marlins 19.0 percentage points of win probability, the single most damaging play of the game, and a fielding error by Jesús Bastidas on the same pitcher added another 10.2-point swing against the home side.
Among individual performers, Janek led all batters with a 17.4% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Acosta and Anthony Huezo posted figures of plus-11.0% and plus-9.1% WPA respectively for Miami. On the mound, Jayden Murray contributed the largest pitching WPA of the afternoon at plus-12.7%, with Alimber Santa and Logan VanWey each providing meaningful bullpen support at plus-9.4% and plus-7.5%.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.