The San Diego Padres defeated the Los Angeles Angels 7-3 at Peoria Stadium on February 25, 2026, a result that the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming only in hindsight — the pre-game home win probability stood at 54%, but closed at 100% as San Diego pulled away decisively in the middle innings. The Angels managed eight hits without committing an error, but the Padres generated the runs that mattered, scoring in bunches in the sixth and eighth innings to put the game well out of reach.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the sixth, where San Diego plated four runs against Angels pitching. Ty France delivered a single off Austin Gordon that added 17.2% to the Padres' win probability, the single largest swing of the contest, and Nick Castellanos drew a walk off Chris Cortez that pushed the needle an additional 13.4%. Those two plays alone shifted the complexion of a scoreless game into one the Angels could not realistically recover from. Los Angeles briefly showed life in the top of the seventh when Omar Martinez hit a home run off Omar Cruz, a swing worth 12.7% in win probability and crediting him with a final WPA of plus-11.6% and an RE24 of plus-0.8. However, any momentum that created was quickly extinguished when Juan Flores grounded into a double play in the top of the eighth against Jagger Haynes, costing the Angels 14.1% in win probability. Romeo Sanabria then doubled off Jared Southard in the bottom half, a plus-13.3% WPA swing that effectively sealed the outcome.
On the pitching side, Jagger Haynes was the most impactful arm of the afternoon, finishing with a WPA of plus-10.8%, followed by Alek Jacob at plus-8.4% and Najer Victor at plus-6.8%, a trio that collectively held the Angels offense in check when it mattered most. Nick Castellanos led all position players with an RE24 of plus-1.1 to go with his plus-10.8% WPA, while Romeo Sanabria's plus-1.0 RE24 reflected the run-context value of his eighth-inning double. The DiamondIQ model favored San Diego entering the game by a modest margin, and the Padres validated that lean emphatically.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.