The New York Yankees held off the Toronto Blue Jays 8-7 at TD Ballpark on February 24, 2026, in a game that turned on a handful of high-leverage moments spread across the final innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Toronto holding a 54 percent pre-game win probability as the home side, but the Yankees built a lead that proved just durable enough to survive a late Blue Jays surge. New York scored in the first, third, fifth, and eighth innings, while Toronto's most productive frame was a four-run sixth that tightened matters considerably before a two-run ninth made the final margin razor-thin.
The decisive swings in win probability belonged largely to Paul Goldschmidt, whose third-inning home run off Tyler Rogers added 16.7 percentage points of win probability to the Yankees' ledger and was part of a night that saw him finish as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-25.9 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.4. Toronto's Charles McAdoo provided the most significant individual response, his sixth-inning double off Bradley Hanner shifting the Blue Jays' chances by plus-13.0 percent and helping fuel that four-run inning. Toronto then made things genuinely tense in the bottom of the ninth against Carson Coleman, with Rafael Lantigua's single adding 12.3 percentage points and Jake Casey's home run adding another 11.1, but Edward Duran's groundout to end the inning paradoxically registered as the single biggest win-probability swing of the game at plus-19.0 percent for the Yankees, sealing the outcome.
On the mound, Kervin Castro was the most impactful arm by WPA at plus-17.3 percent, followed by Will Warren at plus-13.6 percent and Jake Bird at plus-6.2 percent, each contributing to the Yankees' ability to protect a lead that Toronto repeatedly threatened. Both teams finished with 11 hits and committed one error apiece, reflecting an evenly matched contest decided more by the clustering of New York's runs early than by any sustained Toronto answer until it was too late.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.