The Chicago White Sox defeated the Seattle Mariners 12-10 at Peoria Stadium on February 24, 2026, in a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Seattle victory swing from 54 percent before the first pitch down to zero by the final out. The White Sox totaled 16 hits against one error, while the Mariners finished with 12 hits and an error of their own, and neither team managed a clean lead for long through the first six innings.
The pivotal exchanges came in waves. Cal Raleigh's home run off Wikelman González in the bottom of the third shifted the probability picture by 17.2 percentage points in Seattle's favor, and Julio Rodríguez followed with a double off Alexander Alberto in the fourth worth another 18.5 points, keeping the Mariners in a strong position. The bottom of the fifth proved equally significant for Seattle, when Miles Mastrobuoni reached on a fielder's choice off Chase Plymell, a play that added 26.3 percentage points to the home team's win probability and represented the single largest swing of the game in Seattle's direction. Chicago answered decisively in the top of the seventh, however, when Oliver Dunn lined a double off Nico Tellache that carried a 25.4-point swing and helped fuel a three-run frame that gave the White Sox a lead they would not relinquish. Blake Rambusch's flyout to close the bottom of the eighth, coming off Adisyn Coffey, removed 18.7 points from Seattle's remaining chances and effectively sealed the outcome.
Among individual performers, Oliver Dunn led all batters with a WPA of plus-24.6 and an RE24 of plus-1.4, while Mario Camilletti contributed plus-21.2 WPA and the game's top RE24 at plus-1.7. Edgar Quero added plus-18.2 WPA and plus-0.8 RE24 for Chicago. On the mound, Adisyn Coffey was the most impactful arm of the afternoon, posting a plus-23.3 WPA, with Anthony Kay at plus-9.5 and Blas Castaño at plus-7.4 rounding out the bullpen contributions that preserved the two-run final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.