The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Kansas City Royals 5-4 on February 24, 2026, at Goodyear Ballpark, rallying in the bottom of the ninth to erase a deficit and close out a game the DiamondIQ model had entered at a 54 percent home-win probability before it ultimately reached 100 percent in Cincinnati's favor.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the ninth against Jonathan Heasley, who could not hold Kansas City's lead. Michael Toglia opened the rally with a single that added 16.9 percent to Cincinnati's win probability, and Edwin Arroyo followed with a single of his own worth 22.8 percent. Leo Balcazar then delivered the game-winning hit, a single that swung win probability by 26.5 percent and completed the Reds' two-run ninth. Earlier, Eugenio Suárez had provided a critical lift in the fifth inning with a home run off Carlos Estévez, a swing worth 12.4 percent in win probability that helped Cincinnati answer Kansas City's two-run fourth. A significant missed opportunity came in the bottom of the eighth, when Garrett Hampson's flyout off Andrew Pérez erased 18.7 percent of the Reds' win probability and prolonged the tension heading into the final frame.
Among the individual standouts, Leo Balcazar led all batters with a WPA of plus 26.5 percent alongside a RE24 of plus 0.5, while Edwin Arroyo finished at plus 18.2 percent WPA and Josh Rojas posted the game's top RE24 among position players at plus 2.8. On the mound, Andrew Pérez was the most impactful arm by WPA at plus 23.3 percent, with Dennis Colleran Jr. and Hunter Patteson each contributing positively as well. Cincinnati finished with 11 hits to Kansas City's six, providing the offensive foundation that made the ninth-inning comeback possible.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.