The San Francisco Giants defeated the Los Angeles Angels 4-1 at Tempe Diablo Stadium on February 24, 2026, handing the Angels a loss that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win fall from 54 percent before first pitch all the way to zero. San Francisco spread its offense across four separate innings, scoring single runs in the second, third, sixth, and seventh, while holding Los Angeles to a lone run in the eighth. The Giants also ran error-free, while the Angels committed two, contributing to a clean performance from San Francisco across the board.
The fifth inning proved to be the game's most consequential stretch by win-probability measure, even without a run scoring for either side. Working in relief, Ryan Walker generated the two biggest momentum swings of the night, striking out Gustavo Campero for a swing of negative 8.1 percent in win probability against the Angels and then retiring Niko Kavadas on strikes at negative 6.7 percent, effectively strangling a potential Angels rally. Bryce Teodosio's hit by pitch off Walker briefly nudged Los Angeles's chances upward by 7.3 percent, but it amounted to nothing. In the top of the sixth, Patrick Bailey drove a double off Joel Hurtado for a 5.4 percent win-probability swing that pushed the Giants ahead for good in that sequence.
Logan Webb led all pitchers in win probability added at plus 9.5 percent, with Walker and Keaton Winn contributing 6.6 and 6.0 percent respectively to round out a strong collective effort from the San Francisco staff. Among position players, Bailey finished as the top contributor at plus 7.3 percent WPA and plus 1.0 RE24, while Omar Martinez added plus 7.0 percent WPA and Jerar Encarnacion chipped in plus 3.4 percent. Matthew Lugo's groundout to end the ninth inning added a somewhat curious plus 6.3 percent to the Angels' ledger in a mop-up situation, a reflection of how thoroughly the Giants had already closed out the game by that point.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.