The Washington Nationals defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 6-1 on February 24, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Washington entered the night with a slight home-field edge according to the model, and the game's decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the eighth inning, when the Nationals sent five runs across to break open what had been a tight contest. St. Louis had scored in the top of the third to briefly level things, but Washington held the lead it established in the first and ultimately pulled away in dominant fashion, finishing with a 6-4-1 line against the Cardinals' 1-3-2.
The eighth inning was defined as much by the Cardinals' pitching struggles as by Washington's timely execution. Cayden Wallace drew a walk off Tyler Bradt that added 15.8 percent to Washington's win probability, the single largest swing of the game, and Jack Rogers followed with another walk from Bradt that pushed the needle an additional 10.6 percent. On the other side of the ledger, Bligh Madris's flyout in the top of the eighth off Kyle Luckham cost St. Louis 7.2 percent, and Ethan Petry's forceout off Mason Molina subtracted another 6.1 percent, effectively extinguishing any Cardinals comeback chances.
Washington's top performers were led by Wallace and Rogers, who finished with WPA figures of plus-14.2 and plus-10.6 respectively, with Rogers also posting a RE24 of plus-1.0. Yohel Pozo contributed a plus-5.7 WPA and plus-0.7 RE24, aided in part by a walk in the fourth inning off Bryan Polanco that registered as the fifth-largest win-probability swing of the night. On the mound, Riley Cornelio paced Nationals pitchers with a plus-15.4 WPA, supported by Kyle Luckham at plus-10.6 and Austin Love at plus-8.3, as Washington's pitching staff collectively held St. Louis to three hits while the Cardinals' two errors further complicated their afternoon.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.