The Houston Astros and New York Mets played to a 6-6 final at Clover Park on February 24, 2026, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate at exactly 0% for either side — meaning no winner to assign probability to. The Mets had built a commanding advantage early, scoring four runs in the first inning and adding another in the second, but Houston clawed back with a three-run seventh and a two-run ninth to force the deadlock. The Astros finished with nine hits and one error against the Mets' seven hits and a clean defensive performance.
The decisive swings came late. Lucas Spence delivered the most impactful single play of the game, a ninth-inning single off Colton Cosper that shifted win probability by plus 24.1 percentage points, and Jax Biggers followed with a walk off Josh Blum that added another plus 16.2 points, pushing Houston to the brink of a comeback. Those two plays were the fulcrum of the rally, though the Mets' Nick Lorusso contributed a stabilizing pop out off Joey Mancini in the bottom of the ninth worth plus 11.0 points from Houston's perspective, helping preserve the tie. Earlier, Brice Matthews had hurt the Astros badly with a double play in the eighth off Alex Carrillo, a minus 18.3-point swing that briefly stalled the Houston momentum.
Among individual performers, Spence led all batters with a plus 30.4% WPA and plus 0.8 RE24, while Biggers posted plus 21.2% WPA to go with a team-best plus 1.1 RE24. Carlos Pérez added plus 10.3% WPA and the top RE24 mark of plus 1.4 among position players. On the mound, Jack Wenninger paced the pitching staff at plus 10.3% WPA, with Bryce Conley and Alex Carrillo contributing plus 9.5% and plus 8.1% respectively, the latter notable given the Matthews double play came against him yet his overall contribution still registered as a net positive for Houston.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.