The Colorado Rockies defeated the Los Angeles Angels 7-5 at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on February 24, 2026, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Colorado victory climb from a pre-game 54% home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Colorado built its lead incrementally, scoring in the second, third, fourth, and seventh innings before Angels batters mounted a significant threat in the top of the eighth. The Angels finished with six hits against Colorado's 15, and neither team committed an error.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the top of the eighth, when Wade Meckler launched a triple off Patrick Weigel that shifted win probability by plus 23.0%, the single largest swing of the contest, briefly bringing the Angels within striking distance. Earlier in the third, Logan O'Hoppe had ripped a triple off Seth Halvorsen for a plus 17.2% swing, only for Adam Frazier to ground into a double play on the same at-bat sequence, surrendering 11.4 percentage points back to Colorado. Ryan Ritter answered in the bottom of the fourth with an RBI single off Victor Mederos worth plus 10.6%, and Charlie Condon's home run off Derek Clark in the bottom of the eighth at plus 13.6% helped Colorado reassert control for good.
Among individual performers, Meckler led all batters with a plus 22.0% WPA and a 2.0 RE24, while Ryan Ritter posted the game's best RE24 at plus 2.1 to go with his plus 19.2% WPA. O'Hoppe contributed a plus 14.6% WPA and 1.7 RE24 despite the inning's disappointing finish. On the mound, Sean Sullivan paced Colorado's pitching staff with a plus 7.2% WPA, followed closely by Luis Peralta at plus 6.4% and Ryan Miller at plus 6.3%, a collective effort that proved just enough to hold off the Angels' late charge.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.