The New York Yankees defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-2 at LECOM Park on February 23, 2026, handing Pittsburgh a loss despite the Pirates collecting 10 hits to the Yankees' 5. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened the game with Pittsburgh holding a 54% win probability, but that number never recovered after a pivotal second inning in which the Yankees pushed across four runs, a burst that effectively controlled the outcome from that point forward.
The decisive swing came in the top of the second, where Ben Rice delivered a single off Tyrone Yulie that contributed to the Yankees' four-run frame, adding 6.7% in win probability and anchoring Rice's game-best mark of plus-11.1% WPA with a RE24 of plus-2.0. Pittsburgh's chances eroded further through self-inflicted damage, as Oneil Cruz's strikeout in the bottom of the second surrendered 10.3% in win probability off Ryan Yarbrough, and Marcell Ozuna grounded into a double play in the third against Paul Blackburn for another 9.4% swing against the home side. A sixth-inning error by Ali Sánchez in the top of the seventh added another 6.6% to the Yankees' column, and Javier Rivas capped Pittsburgh's misfortune with a ground-rule double play in the eighth that cost the Pirates 11.8% in win probability off Ben Hess.
On the mound, Paul Blackburn led all pitchers with plus-10.1% WPA, followed closely by Ben Hess at plus-8.9% and Ryan Yarbrough at plus-8.8%, as the Yankees' pitching staff collectively neutralized Pittsburgh's hit production. Among batters, Nick Gonzales added plus-8.4% WPA and Bryan Reynolds contributed plus-6.5%, though their efforts were insufficient to offset the compounding damage of three grounded-into double plays that ultimately sealed Pittsburgh's fate.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.