The Colorado Rockies defeated the Chicago White Sox 5-4 on February 23, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, with Zac Veen delivering the decisive blow in the bottom of the ninth to secure the walk-off win. Colorado jumped out to a 3-0 lead after the first inning but found themselves trailing or tied heading into the final frame after the White Sox mounted a two-run eighth inning to take a 4-4 advantage. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Colorado as a 54% favorite at home, and by the final out it had reached 100%.
The game turned on two pivotal eighth-inning sequences that shifted momentum in opposite directions. Munetaka Murakami's double off Adam Laskey moved the needle most dramatically among White Sox hitters, adding 17.9% win probability, and Caden Connor followed with a single worth another 12.9%, helping Chicago build what appeared to be a decisive lead. However, Tristan Peters' sacrifice fly double play off Laskey swung 12.8% back toward Colorado, blunting the full damage of that rally. Cole Carrigg had earlier kept the Rockies in the game with a double off Ben Peoples in the seventh worth 12.5% win probability. Then, with the game tied at four in the bottom of the ninth, Veen launched a walk-off home run off Shane Murphy, a swing worth an extraordinary 45.9% win probability added that single-handedly closed the contest.
On the mound, Keegan Thompson led all pitchers with a 11.3% win probability contribution, with John Brebbia and Brandon Eisert adding 5.0% and 3.6% respectively in support. Murakami finished as the top White Sox contributor at plus-19.1% WPA with a plus-0.6 RE24, while Connor added plus-0.8 RE24 despite the loss. Colorado finished with fewer hits than Chicago, managing just six against eleven for the White Sox, but Veen's single swing made all the difference.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.