The Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals played to a 5-5 tie on February 23, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win at exactly 0 percent after entering the day at 54 percent. Washington built its early advantage with a run in the first inning and added four more in a dominant sixth, when Bryan Rincon delivered the biggest blow of that frame, a double off Andre Granillo that swung win probability by 26.6 percentage points in Philadelphia's favor from the batting team's perspective. Philadelphia had held a 5-1 lead entering the bottom of the seventh, but Washington chipped away with two runs in the seventh and two more in the eighth to force the final deadlock.
The eighth inning proved to be the most consequential stretch of the game by the DiamondIQ model's accounting. Matt Mervis delivered a two-run double off Danyony Pulido that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the afternoon at plus 29.8 percentage points, and a Riley Adams walk in the same frame added another 11.5 percentage points. Those gains were partially offset when Trey Lipscomb struck out against Pulido, a swing of minus 15.1 percentage points. Philadelphia could not complete the comeback in the ninth, as Bryson Ware lined out against Owen Puk with runners on base, a play that cost the Phillies 12.8 percentage points of win probability and preserved the tie.
Among individual performers, Mervis finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 35.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Rincon posted a plus 19.7 percent WPA alongside the game's best RE24 among hitters at plus 2.1. Sergio Alcántara contributed plus 13.6 percent WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus 0.1. On the mound, Owen Puk led all pitchers with a plus 13.5 percent WPA, with Julian Fernández and Levi Stoudt each contributing plus 6.3 percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.