The New York Mets defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 4-3 at TD Ballpark on February 23, 2026, overcoming a late deficit to hand Toronto a loss in a game the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 54 percent home win probability that ultimately collapsed to zero. The Blue Jays had built their runs in the second inning, surrendering the lead for the first time in the third before Cristian Pache extended the Mets advantage with a home run off Josh Fleming in the seventh that carried a win-probability swing of plus 13.4 percent. Toronto chipped away with a run in the ninth, setting the stage for a tense finish that swung decisively in New York's favor.
The bottom of the ninth proved to be the most consequential sequence of the game, with Trey McGough at the center of a three-batter stretch that reshaped the outcome entirely. RJ Schreck delivered a double off McGough for a plus 21.4 percent win-probability swing, and Charles McAdoo followed with a single that moved the needle another 27.2 percent in Toronto's favor from the batting team's perspective, ultimately proving to be the game's single most impactful offensive event. Eloy Jimenez's strikeout in the same frame dented the Blue Jays by 18.6 percent, briefly tightening the moment before the damage was done. Jackson Cluff's walk off Jorge Alcala in the sixth, worth plus 13.1 percent in win probability, also factored as a key catalyst in extending the Mets' threat.
Charles McAdoo finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 22.9 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.6, while Jackson Cluff posted the strongest run-environment impact among position players at plus 1.5 RE24 alongside his plus 18.9 percent WPA. RJ Schreck contributed plus 15.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.7. On the pitching side, Tobias Myers led the staff with a plus 13.4 percent WPA, followed closely by Ryan Lambert at plus 13.3 percent, with Gregori Louis adding plus 9.5 percent. Toronto's two errors proved consequential in a game decided by a single run.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.