The Los Angeles Dodgers shut out the Seattle Mariners 3-0 on February 23, 2026, at Camelback Ranch, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game was scoreless through three innings before a pivotal fourth inning broke it open entirely. Los Angeles plated two runs in the bottom of the fourth and added a third in the sixth, and the Mariners never generated enough to seriously threaten on a day when they managed just four hits and committed an error.
The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the fourth against Seattle's José A. Ferrer. Alex Freeland delivered a double that shifted win probability by plus 10.4 percent, the single largest swing of the game, and Santiago Espinal followed with another double worth plus 9.0 percent. A walk to Keston Hiura in that same frame added another 6.5 percent, turning the inning into a three-play sequence that effectively settled the outcome. Freeland finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a cumulative WPA of plus 15.2 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.7, while Espinal posted plus 9.2 percent WPA and plus 1.0 RE24. Rhylan Thomas also contributed positively at plus 5.3 percent WPA.
On the pitching side, the Dodgers received strong performances from Jason Ruffcorn, who led all pitchers with plus 8.5 percent WPA, followed by Logan Gilbert at plus 6.7 percent and Carson Hobbs at plus 6.4 percent. Seattle's best opportunity to apply late pressure fizzled in the top of the eighth when Brennen Davis popped out against Jordan Weems, a play that cost the Mariners 6.8 percent in win probability and effectively closed the door on any comeback. The Mariners' most damaging offensive moment came even earlier, in the third inning, when Teoscar Hernández grounded into a double play off Carlos Vargas, costing Seattle 5.5 percent win probability before they had even managed to score.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.