San Diego defeated Milwaukee 7-5 on February 23, 2026, at Peoria Stadium, with the Padres turning a tight contest into a comfortable victory on the back of a six-run eighth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving San Diego a 54 percent chance of winning at home and closed at 100 percent, with the bulk of that probability shift concentrated in a single transformative frame.
The Brewers drew first blood in a big way, plating four runs in the top of the first inning to seize early control, and Milwaukee held that advantage deep into the game. San Diego chipped away with a run in the fourth, but the Padres trailed heading into the eighth. A Jose F. Miranda groundout into a double play in the bottom of the sixth had been the game's single most damaging offensive moment for San Diego, swinging win probability 20.2 percent against the home side and stalling what could have been an earlier rally off Ethan Dorchies. Milwaukee also got notable early help from the mound, as Abner Uribe recorded the highest WPA among pitchers at plus-12.8 percent, with Bryce Johnson's strikeout in the second inning representing an 11.2 percent swing in Milwaukee's favor.
The eighth inning erased all of that. Samad Taylor delivered the game's single most impactful offensive play, a single off Joshua Quezada that added 30.9 percent in win probability and headlined the six-run outburst. Francisco Acuna followed with another single off Quezada worth 20.7 percent, and Romeo Sanabria capped the rally with a double against Bjorn Johnson that swung another 18.5 percent toward San Diego. Taylor finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-32.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.7, matched by Acuna and Sanabria at identical RE24 marks. Easton McGee contributed plus-10.4 percent from the mound as San Diego's bullpen secured the final three outs to close out the 7-5 win.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.