The Atlanta Braves defeated the Baltimore Orioles 10-7 at Ed Smith Stadium on February 23, 2026, in a game that remained close through five innings before Atlanta broke it open with a decisive eight-run sixth. The DiamondIQ model entered with Baltimore holding a 54% win probability, a figure that eroded steadily and ultimately reached 0% by the final out.
The pivotal sequence came in the top of the sixth inning, when Atlanta dismantled Baltimore's relief corps for those eight runs against Enoli Paredes and Cohen Achen. The biggest single swing of the game came on a Nacho Alvarez Jr. double off Paredes, a play the DiamondIQ model valued at plus 22.1% in win probability. That was followed by a DaShawn Keirsey Jr. fielding error off Achen that added another 13.0%, and a Brewer Hicklen single off Achen worth 11.5%, compounding Baltimore's collapse in the frame. Before the sixth-inning eruption, Baltimore had built its own brief momentum in the bottom of the fifth, where a Tyler O'Neill walk off Elison Joseph shifted win probability 11.4% toward the Orioles and a Luis Vázquez double off Hunter Stratton added another 11.3%, trimming what had been a two-run Atlanta advantage to set the stage for the dramatic reversal an inning later.
Among individual performers, Alvarez Jr. led all batters with a plus 19.5% WPA and 1.2 RE24, anchoring the game's turning point with his sixth-inning double. Dominic Smith contributed plus 15.2% WPA and paced all players with a 1.5 RE24, while Eli White added plus 14.0% WPA to round out Atlanta's most impactful offensive contributors. On the mound, José Suarez led Braves pitchers with plus 11.4% WPA, supported by Garrett Baumann at plus 6.7% and Jose Espada at plus 4.3%, as Atlanta's staff held Baltimore in check after the Orioles' fifth-inning push. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the concentrated sixth-inning damage as the definitive turning point in Atlanta's three-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.