Texas rode a five-run fifth inning to pull away from Colorado, claiming a 9-5 victory at Surprise Stadium on February 22, 2026. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent pre-game estimate favoring the Rangers and closed at 100 percent by the final out, a steady drift that reflected how thoroughly Texas controlled the back half of the contest. The scoring was clustered in the middle frames, with both clubs exchanging a pair of runs in the second, Colorado striking for three in the top of the fourth before Texas answered with two of its own, and then the Rangers blowing the game open with three runs in the fifth. Colorado finished with ten hits against no errors, while Texas managed nine hits but committed one error.
The single most consequential moment of the afternoon came in the bottom of the fifth when Jonah Bride laced a double off Evan Shawver, a hit that swung win probability 32.1 percentage points in Texas's favor and effectively ended any realistic path back for Colorado. Bride finished as the game's top performer by both WPA and RE24, posting a plus-31.4 percent win-probability contribution and a plus-2.2 RE24 mark. Alejandro Osuna was nearly as impactful, with a walk off Sam Weatherly in the fourth shifting the needle 10.6 points; he finished with a plus-19.7 WPA and matching plus-2.2 RE24. On the Colorado side, Brett Sullivan's double off Ryan Brasier in the fourth added 18.5 percentage points and briefly made things uncomfortable for Texas, with Sterlin Thompson's subsequent single off Brasier contributing another 11.6 points, but Frainyer Chavez's strikeout to close out the fifth against Shawver erased 9.9 points and signaled the Rockies' window had closed.
Among Rangers pitchers, Robby Ahlstrom led the staff with a plus-6.4 WPA, followed by Leandro Lopez at plus-5.5 and Tyler Alexander at plus-5.3, a collective showing that kept Colorado's offense in check once the game turned in the fifth. The Rockies' ten-hit output was ultimately undermined by an inability to sustain pressure in the later innings, as Texas's bullpen held Colorado scoreless from the fifth inning through the ninth to preserve the four-run margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.