The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 7-4 at LECOM Park on February 22, 2026, handing the Rays a loss fueled by two costly errors and a Pittsburgh offense that found its rhythm in the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Pittsburgh holding a 54 percent home win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent as the Pirates pulled away methodically across the fifth, sixth, and seventh frames.
The game's decisive stretch began in the bottom of the fifth, when a Billy Cook walk off Luis Guerrero shifted win probability 14.2 percent in Pittsburgh's favor as the Pirates began to apply pressure. The sixth inning proved to be the turning point in full. Nick Cimillo drove a home run off Alex Cook for a swing of plus 14.8 percent, and Shawn Ross followed with a single off the same pitcher worth an additional 13.6 percent, effectively wresting control of the contest from Tampa Bay. Jacob Melton had answered with a solo home run off Yohan Ramirez in the top of the sixth for a 14.6 percent swing that briefly kept the Rays within reach, but Pittsburgh's half of the inning erased that momentum entirely. Tony Blanco Jr. then delivered the capping blow in the bottom of the seventh, a single off Chase Solesky that registered as the game's single largest play at plus 18.2 percent win probability.
Among individual performers, Henry Davis led Pittsburgh's positional contributors with a WPA of plus 14.0 percent and a RE24 of plus 0.9, while Blanco Jr. finished with plus 13.8 percent WPA and a game-best RE24 of plus 1.3. Melton was Tampa Bay's most impactful bat at plus 12.9 percent WPA despite ending on the losing side. On the mound, Noah Davis paced all pitchers with a WPA of plus 13.1 percent, supported by Jackson Lancaster at plus 6.3 percent and Cole Sulser at plus 5.9 percent as Pittsburgh's staff collectively preserved the three-run final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.