Pittsburgh scored four runs in the top of the sixth inning to overturn a 2-1 deficit and hold on for a 4-3 victory over Philadelphia at BayCare Ballpark on February 22, 2026. The DiamondIQ model had opened with a 54 percent pre-game win probability in favor of the home Phillies, but that estimate closed at zero as Pittsburgh's bullpen protected the lead through the final three innings.
The decisive moment came in the top of the sixth, when Esmerlyn Valdez launched a home run off Jack Dallas that swung win probability 43.9 percentage points in Pittsburgh's favor, the single largest play of the game. Philadelphia answered with a Carson DeMartini home run off Nick Dombkowski in the bottom half of the inning, a swing worth 13.8 percentage points for the Phillies, but it was not enough to close the gap Pittsburgh had opened. In the bottom of the eighth, Peyton Stumbo induced a René Pinto groundout that shifted win probability 12.9 points back toward Pittsburgh, and the Phillies mounted a final threat in the ninth before Bryan Rincon's groundout off Landon Tomkins sealed the outcome, adding 27.0 percentage points to Pittsburgh's ledger. An Aroon Escobar single in that same ninth inning had briefly kept Philadelphia alive, worth 12.3 points, but Stumbo and the Pittsburgh relievers ultimately held firm.
Valdez finished as the game's top performer by win probability added, posting a combined mark of plus-47.9 percent WPA and plus-3.7 RE24 across his contributions. Rincon supported him with plus-23.9 percent WPA, while Escobar contributed plus-9.1 percent WPA for the Phillies in a losing effort. On the mound, Stumbo led Pittsburgh's pitching staff with plus-23.3 percent WPA, followed by Michael Walsh at plus-9.7 and Giussepe Velasquez at plus-7.4, as the Pirates' relievers combined to shut Philadelphia out across the final three innings and secure the win.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.