The Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers played to a 4-4 tie on February 22, 2026, at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium, a back-and-forth spring training contest that ended with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving Detroit a 54 percent home win probability before settling at zero percent at the final horn. Baltimore scored single runs in each of the first four innings to build and maintain a 4-3 lead heading into the bottom of the ninth, only for the Tigers to force extra deliberation in the closing frame. Detroit's Austin Slater provided the home team its most impactful early swing, a third-inning home run off Brandon Young that added 11.0 percent to the Tigers' win probability, while the game's most consequential single moment came in the ninth when Max Clark lined a single off Andrew Magno to tie the contest, a hit the DiamondIQ model valued at plus 39.4 percent win probability added.
The eighth inning told a story of competing fortunes. Corey Julks opened the frame with a double off Cameron Weston worth plus 13.4 percent, briefly threatening Baltimore's lead, before Gage Workman's strikeout against the same pitcher swung momentum back sharply in Baltimore's favor at minus 23.3 percent. Weston ultimately finished as the game's most effective pitcher by the model's accounting, generating plus 33.0 percent win probability in his outing, with Bryan Sammons and Anthony Nunez adding plus 11.5 and plus 7.9 percent respectively on the Baltimore staff.
Among position players, Max Clark led all batters with plus 37.3 percent WPA and a 0.8 RE24 mark on the strength of his tying single, while Julks accumulated plus 24.4 percent WPA across his two key plate appearances, including a ninth-inning forceout off Magno worth an additional plus 11.0 percent. Pete Alonso posted the highest RE24 of any batter at plus 1.2 alongside plus 14.5 percent WPA, making him Baltimore's most productive run-environment contributor on the afternoon. The Orioles finished with a 9-0 edge in hits and committed no errors against Detroit's one, though neither club was able to separate in a game the model viewed as genuinely contested until the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.