The New York Mets defeated the New York Yankees 6-4 at George M. Steinbrenner Field on February 22, 2026, handing the home side a loss despite entering the day as 54-percent favorites according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The Mets scored in the second, fourth, and sixth innings before both clubs exchanged runs in a pivotal eighth that ultimately settled the outcome, with New York finishing with 11 hits and no errors while the Yankees committed one and managed nine hits.
The eighth inning was the decisive stretch of the game. JT Schwartz delivered the biggest positive swing of the afternoon for the Mets, his home run off Brendan Beck adding 16.6 percent in win probability and giving New York the critical cushion it needed. The Yankees answered with a Kenedy Corona home run off Brian Metoyer that swung things 12.2 percent in the home team's favor, but any hope of a comeback was extinguished when Braden Shewmake grounded into a double play against Jordan Geber, a sequence that swung 23.3 percent away from the Yankees and stood as the single most consequential play of the game. Earlier, Hayden Senger's sixth-inning home run off Angel Chivilli had added 12.1 percent for the Mets, and Luis Torrens had done similar damage in the fourth with a solo shot off Cade Winquest worth 11.3 percent.
Schwartz led all position players with a WPA of plus-16.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.7, making him the clearest offensive driver of the victory. Torrens and Jazz Chisholm Jr. also contributed meaningfully, each posting WPA marks above plus-10 percent. On the pitching side, Geber was the most impactful arm in the game by this measure, his plus-23.3 percent WPA reflecting the damage his double-play induction prevented in the eighth, with Brett Banks and Douglas Orellana adding further stability to close out the Mets win.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.