Seattle put together a dominant offensive performance at Goodyear Ballpark on February 22, 2026, defeating Cincinnati 14-8 behind a 17-hit attack that erased the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 54% home win probability and drove it to 0% by the final out. The Reds grabbed an early foothold with a five-run second inning, but Seattle answered with three in the fifth and steadily chipped away before breaking the game open with two in the seventh, one in the eighth, and a decisive six-run ninth that put the contest firmly out of reach.
The late innings were where the DiamondIQ model registered its sharpest probability swings. Felnin Celesten's double off Luis Mey in the top of the ninth produced the single biggest win-probability shift of the night at plus 17.5%, immediately followed by Jonny Farmelo's double off the same pitcher adding another plus 16.8%. The eighth inning was similarly impactful, as Blake Rambusch drew a walk off Zach Maxwell that moved the needle plus 17.0%, though Luis Suisbel's strikeout against Luis Mey in that frame cut back minus 15.2% before Seattle reasserted control. Suisbel had contributed positively earlier, lofting a single off Lyon Richardson in the seventh for plus 14.3%.
By individual contribution, Rambusch was Seattle's most valuable offensive presence at plus 23.0% WPA and plus 1.5 RE24, while Brennen Davis posted the night's best run-creation number at plus 3.5 RE24 alongside plus 16.8% WPA. JJ Bleday added plus 13.2% WPA and plus 1.9 RE24. On the pitching side, Jhonathan Díaz was the standout with plus 16.4% WPA, supported by Tejay Antone at plus 5.0% and Graham Ashcraft at plus 3.5%. Seattle committed no errors across the contest, finishing a clean 17-hit, 14-run afternoon.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.